Finding Market Inefficiencies (cont.) - AAApril

If you are here you likely read yesterday’s post and you want to see what happens when 13 relievers try to pitch as one collective stat. If you missed yesterday’s post you can read it here.

There are a couple rules that I have to point out before we can continue. Due to ths April’s post will be a bit longer than the other months but if you’ve come this far I don’t need to ask you to bare with me, because you already are.

-                    I only simulate games. I do not partake in any part of the on field action. I only look at the box score.

-                   At any time I may adjust my pitching rotation, the 5 guys in position as starters, the guy who is called the closer and anything else for that matter.

-                   The lineup, position on the field and in the batting order is entirely decided by a computer version of Bud Black

-                   With the exception of who starts a game Computer Bud Black (CBB) has control of pitching decision.

-                   If 5 or more of my pitchers have a fatigue rating under 10% I may call up a starter from Triple A for one game, I have to send down a hitter and keep all pitchers active.

-                   I can make trades as I see fit, however I may not acquire a starting pitcher in any trade. And I can’t force any trades.

-                   The game forces me to stay under budget, unlike real baseball I can’t take Alfonso Soriano’s contract onto my team with a goofy prospect trade in July, unless I have the money to do so.

-                   I am writing these notes immediately following the end of a month. So there is no hindsight only looking forward and developing ideas to change our progress.

And now for the results. And this guy just because he looks cool. 

April saw my staff pitch to a 3.11 ERA; 5^th best in the Majors, and the 2^nd best K/9 in the league.  Despite one of the best pitching staffs in the league the lineup has been no better than a Triple A team of replacement players. Scoring 93 runs in 26 games with a team batting average of .227, the crap offense has been sparked by Jay Bruce, AJ Pierzynski and Edwin Encarnacion combining to hit .194 with 8 home runs. . Through April the “new-look” Padres are 14-12. Knowing that my pitchers are going to fatigue and be more susceptible to injury in August and September, I felt we needed to be better in April. The hitting will come around, my focus is on the pitching.

The Golden Sombrero; 4 k's in one game.
It's almost like a promotional night throughout April,
how many can this offense complete.

My real baseball theory isn’t working nearly as well as I had hoped. Computer Bud Black isn’t playing match-ups he’s just using guys until they are exhausted and then changing them. My theory was that the starter would pitch the first two innings and it’s matchups the rest of the way. So I have to many instances of 3 guys pitching 3 innings rather than 2 guys pitching 2 and 5 guys pitching 1. In the Season Opener Charlie Furbush pitched 2.1 perfect innings and then gave up 5 runs before recording another out. Jake McGee came in and gave up 6 more in 1 inning of work.

Despite my ineffectiveness as a GM the pitching staff did record 4 shutouts, which is pretty darn good. My ineffectiveness comes from my 13 man staff having 8 lefties and 5 righties. Which would likely explain why Jake McGee (8.59 ERA, 2.20 WHIP) Tim Collins (6.06 ERA, 1.90 WHIP) and Sean Doolittle (5.06 ERA, 1.75 WHIP) all had rough April’s. In fact the five worst April ERAs were all lefties. They were forced to pitch in situations they shouldn’t have been because they are perceived by the video game as LOOGYs (lefty one out guys). I have since traded Jake McGee and a prospect for Drew Storen and Tim Collins and a prospect for Bobby Parnell. We now sit at 6 lefties and 7 righties, which should make things much easier for Computer Bud Black.

I can't put WILTON Lopez into a game without thinking
he might have a MELTdown.

With 26 games you may be wondering who started what games. It was entirely random and I wouldn’t have been able to answer you in game. It was not until I looked at stats that I knew. My theory entering each game was that the guy in the closer role should not have a fatigue under 90. And the four most tired guys would be in the starting rotation as the “next four starters.” Typically I took the guy who was not tired with the hopes he could get me three innings (since CBB isn’t managing the way I had envisioned). However, I realized this would then leave him tired for three days and essentially make him unavailable untilt the next time he would arguably start. So I fixed that. But Nate Jones started 4 games and came out with an ERA of 1.45, he’s thrown 18.2 innings. Ryan Cook and Robbie Ross didn’t start any games, so we’ll make sure they have a few in May. Wilton Lopez pitched 16 innings of .56 ERA ball, leading to the awful pun in the caption above and Tony Watson picked up 2 saves. As a team we were 7 of 8 in save chances, and I don’t know if that was a 9^th inning blown save or a middle relief blown save (and in this strategy middle relief is the 4^th-8^th inning. 


We’ll see what May has in store for us.