Monday, June 6, 2016

Indians should trade Brantley

So Brantley's shoulder is more messed up then the Tribe let on and they rushed him back and now he's probably out until August. So here goes my most likely very unpopular take.

Here is what I don't know;
1. When Brantley will comeback from this injury.
2. If he will hit or field like Brantley when he does come back.
3. If he will ever be the same player.

Here is what I do know;
1. Brantley is 29 years old, along with the main core of the team Kipnis, Santana, Kluber, Carrasco, Chisenhall, Gomes, Allen, Shaw, Tomlin are all 28-31. Basically the youth is Salazar, Bauer and Lindor (throw in Naquin if you will).
2. Four of the 9 guys in the everyday lineup are likely not on the team next season. (Napoli/Davis/Uribe on 1 year deals, Santana has a $12 million dollar club option. And this team can't afford to pay him $12 to DH and hit .230 with 20 home runs). The window of opportunity is 2016.
3. The team is currently in first place but could use another OF and bullpen arm. Possibly even a catcher if Gomes doesn't get it together.
4. Michael Brantley is the most valuable trade asset the Indians can make available.

That 4th thing is what I want to focus on...
Brantley is not the most valuable trade chip the Indians have, because you could probably trade Lindor straight up for about 95% of the league. You could probably get any expiring contract you want for Salazar. And Zimmer and Frazier are big time prospects that could bring in return. However Brantley's value to the 2016 Indians is lower than any of those guys mentioned earlier. To the 2017 and 2018 Indians we don't know, but we do know he will be 30 and coming off a lost season due to shoulder surgery.

It's an interesting task to find a partner. Brantley is owed 9.3M next season. So a team in complete rebuild isn't going to want him and a team thats currently contending is in the same boat as the Indians. You don't want to trade him in division. But there are plenty of teams that might be interesting for 2017 as they retool.

What about the Yankees (26-30, 6.5 games out of the East, 5 game out of a Wild Card). Would they take Brantley for Beltran and Chapman? They might be able to prospects for those guys, but why not get a sure thing ready to play on Opening Day in 2017, instead of waiting 4 years and hoping you were right?

Or the Angels (26-30 8 back in the West, 5 back of a WC). Would they take Brantley for Kole Calhoun and a reliever? Brantley is certainly better than Calhoun when healthy, but Calhoun would help the Indians in June and July of 2016.

And the Cardinals (30-27, only half a game back of the Wild Card, but 10 back of the Cubs). Would they risk a chance at the 1 game playoff to save $10 million and pay 29 year old Brantley 9.3M next year instead of 36 year old Matt Holliday $17 million (of course they'd have to thrown in Siegrist or Rosenthal)? The Pirates are in a similar boat.

And those are just the teams that could instantly compete in 2017 with one of these moves.

Everyone will say; don't mortgage the future. Trading a 29 year old isn't mortgaging the future, it's sub-letting the future. We know what Michael Brantley is right now. We don't know what he will be over the next 2 seasons. Nor do we know what the Indians will be over the next two seasons. There is always next year, but THIS YEAR is the year to win and a Brantley move is a great way to make it happen.