As promised the final 58 match-ups. This is pretty much entirely guess work, keep RPIs close, keep travel distance close and look for interesting scenarios that you can find without tons of research.
Nobody can really explain how it’s done by the big boys. One day we can find out. Some teams may not want to travel, others may be debating on whether to come back the following year or wait a year. Like Old Dominion did this year against Cleveland State.
After numerous hours of my BracketBuster Map, Google Maps, RealTime RPI and many other things. I’ve finalized the last 58 match-ups with an average of 32 RPI points between the teams (25 points for the TV games, so not bad) and an average 577.9 miles per match-up, excluding Hawaii.
In order to make it easiest for the folks to follow I’ll do it by Conference in Alphabetical Order with only the HOME TEAMS. So if you aren’t sure where to find the team you are looking for use “Find” in your browser.
America East
Home of the perennial 16 seed, the only team in D1 Basketball without a win and one of only two conferences not to get on TV. Its likely the winner of this conference will have to win in Dayton (if you know what I mean)
Fairfield @ Albany
Both teams could use this as a kickstart to jump to the top of their leagues
Presbyterian @ Maine
Teams are one apart in RPI, despite a decent chunk of mileage
Hampton @ New Hampshire
Two more teams that are one apart in RPI
James Madison @ Vermont
Vermont went to the NIT last year and is one game behind conference leaders Stony Brook. JMU has struggled in the CAA so far.
Big Sky
Weber St. has come out of nowhere and Montana is right there as well. The winner is probably looking at a 15 seed, but with the right match-up could slide up to 14.
Portland St @ Montana
Relative proximity
UC Davis @ Northern Arizona
My apologies to Northern Arizona, but good news is you get a win.
Texas A&M CC @ Northern Colorado
Remember when they made the tournament and everyone was calling them TamiFlu?
San Jose St @ Sacramento State
Proximity
Nevada @ Weber State (see yesterday’s TV match-ups)
Big South
Is the top of the Big South for real? This is the only chance to find out. Teams will need a good showing to help boost the tourney winners chance of avoiding a play-in (ahem Opening Round) game.
Siena @ Charleston Southern
Charleston Southern will have a say in the Big South title when things are said and done. Siena has been to the tourney before but aren’t in the race this season.
UNC Wilmington @ Coastal Carolina
If Coastal Carolina were an away rteam this year they would have been on TV. Probably the #2 or #3 snub for home teams.
IUPUI @ Gardner-Webb
Another average match-up simply due to travel and league restrictions I tried to set.
UMBC @ Radford
I would have loved to send UMBC to Towson for the battle of 2nd worst team in Maryland (Yes, the Wizards are that bad). But both were away teams.
Delaware St @ VMI
The last game I picked, so it’s not a great match-up. But surprised that the travel worked out.
Big West
Let’s just put this out there the Big West is a nightmare to project especially with most of the teams being between 220-340 in RPI. They have to travel somewhere but it has to be reasonable.
Not going to discuss each one, because they are mostly just regional.
Southern Utah @ CS-Fullerton
Idaho St @ CS-Northridge
Hawaii @ UC-Irvine
UTSA @ UC-Riverside
Probably the best game of the bunch, despite the travel. The RoadRunners have a great young coach and are right there in the Southland.
Texas St @ Pacific
Colonial Athletic Conference
Very few mid-major conferences have sent two DIFFERENT teams to the Final Four. In fact this is the only one to do it in at least 20 years. But this year the Strength of Schedule at the top of the league has the winner looking at a 14 or 15. GMU and VCU will be on TV, but need their league mates to pick up some good wins as well.
Rider @ Delaware
81 miles apart, 6 spots apart in RPI. Could you ask for an easier one?
UNC Asheville @ George Mason (TV Match-up)
Campbell @ Georgia State
Similar RPIs, not to far apart. Becomes the theme when you are predicting 71 games.
Niagara @ Hofstra
I don’t understand Hofstra they are 7-16. Yet may have single handedly destroyed two teams chances at at-large bids (wins against Iona and Cleveland State)
Youngstown St @ Northeastern
Two teams in good conferences that are looking to break out from the middle of the pack.
Buffalo @ VCU (TV Match-up)
Horizon League
Very few mid-major conferences have sent the SAME team to the Final Four in back to back years. In fact this is the only one to do it EVER. But that team is in a down year and a lack of recognition outside said team hurts this league in the National Spotlight. There are some very good teams though in this conference.
Indiana State @ Butler
I’ve heard rumors this game has already been leaked. It’s a no-brainer. Two tourney teams from last year, in true mid-major conferences, 80 miles apart and very close in RPI.
UNI @ Cleveland State (TV Match-up)
Marist @ Detroit
The ever-underachieving Detroit team really should be able to win this game. As you will read below I wanted to send BGSU there, but that didn’t work.
Western Illinois @ Green Bay
Two teams that are similar in RPI, similar in record and have moderate travel.
Oakland @ Milwaukee
Oakland has probably underperformed this season, but Milwaukee might bring out the best in them. If I had to put any game of this group on TV, I’d pick this one (over Kent State/College of Charleston)
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference
The MAAC is in the midst of a logjam up top. Three teams sit there tied for first at 9-2, and all have 16 or 17 wins. The question must be asked if Manhattan and Loyola MD are for real. People seem to think Iona. This is exactly what BracketBusters is all about.
Hartford @ Canisius
Close in RPI and a bus ride distance for these two teams that have combined for 8 wins on the year.
Akron @ Iona (TV Match-up)
Old Dominion @ Loyola Maryland (TV Match-up)
Stony Brook @ Manhattan
58 miles apart, in terms of proximity there are only two or three other combinations of conference leaders in different leagues that are closer than these two (Can you name them?)
Towson @ Saint Peter’s
Towson’s losing streak made the Cavaliers sorrows last season look reasonable. This is a game they can win and get to TWO on the season
Mid American Conference
Yes I am biased about this conference, it’s not as good as the Horizon. It hasn’t been for a few years, yet it still gets better coverage and more attention. However with three teams who could all surprise people come March it’s still tough at the top.
Tennesee State @ Ball State
Similar teams, fair amount of travel. Just kind of fit.
Boston University @ Bowling Green
I had Bowling Green going to Detroit for a picture perfect RPI match-up. And then realized Bowling Green was a home team. So instead they’ll host Boston U – the team directly ahead of them in RPI
Loyola-Chicago @ Central Michigan
One of 3 MAC/HL games in my predictions, I couldn’t pull the trigger on sending Wright State to Miami.
College of Charleston @ Kent State
These are the teams most likely snubbed for not getting a TV game. So they should play each other. Charleston is familiar with the area as they visited Cleveland last year for the NIT
Tennesee-Martin @ Miami (OH)
Proximity over anything else here just over 250 miles apart.
Valparaiso @ Ohio (TV Match-up)
MEAC
Only three teams from the Mid Eastern Athletic Conference participated this year, which is a shame because the only good one (Norfolk St 16-6) didn’t.
William & Mary @ Morgan State
Regional match-up for teams that are barely even relevant to alumni and students (Right Jed?)
Missouri Valley Conference
Ask anyone and they will tell you how good the Valley is. And then when they get two teams in the tournament the excuse is they beat each other up. I might buy that this year. 7 teams are within a game of 3rd place. But none of them are within four of 1st.
Toledo @ Bradley
Geno Ford left the MAC to head to Bradley where he hasn't exactly seen greener pastures yet.
St. Mary’s @ Creighton (TV Match-up)
Tennessee Tech @ Evansville
Will be a better match-up then the blind eye thinks. Tennesse Tech is the most likely team to beat Murray St in the OVC.
Morehead St @ Illinois State
Another OVC/MVC pairing.
Lamar @ Missouri State
These two could have been TV teams as well. Both still have a shot at the Tourney, Lamar more so then their host.
Ohio Valley Conference
The league of undefeated Murray State. The Racers have grabbed some attention for the OVC, which is an otherwise mediocre conference. They do have some tourney history though Morehead St the most recent upset special.
Eastern Michigan @ Austin Peay
EMU will have to Go Peay before the trip down south
Northern Illinois @ Eastern Illinois
Northern and Eastern aren’t as close as you would think but still a do-able bus trip
Wright State @ Eastern Kentucky
Teams are ten spots apart in RPI and 158 miles away from each other.
Central Arkansas @ Jacksonville State
Another location game, finding placing for all those teams in Tennessee and Kentucky that can’t play each other is tough.
Wichita St @ Murray State (TV Match-up)
Illinois-Chicago @ SIU Edwardsville
Illinois is way bigger than I thought. These schools significantly closer in RPI then they are in distance.
Southern
Another half participation league, difference is that arguably the three best teams out of this conference are in.
Liberty @ Appalachian State
Meh? It was getting late last night and I needed some good regional stuff.
Drexel @ Davidson (TV Match-up)
Southland
What can you say about the Southland other than that the winner of this conference gets the right to play in Ohio’s version of... JERSEY!
Disclaimer: The match-ups here were essentially how can I get these teams games without making someone travel 1200 miles.
Wofford @ McNeese State
See disclaimer
High Point @ Nicholls State
See disclaimer
IPFW @ Northwestern State
See disclaimer
Montana St @ Sam Houston University
1739 miles away, but can you really complain if you play your home games in Montana?
Binghamton @ Southeastern Louisiana
Let’s put it bluntly Binghamton is really really bad. They had to go somewhere that nobody could consider halfway decent and sending them to UC Davis wasn’t going to work.
Winthrop @ Stephen F. Austin
Remember that disclaimer?
Summit League
I actually like the Summit League it’s not a bunch of pretentious college basketball wannabes like the other league it shares man borders with (cough cough Missouri cough cough Valley), but every year they produce a good team or two. This year it’s Oral Roberts and South Dakota St. both who will feature on TV.
Fresno St @ Univ. of Missouri-KC
The worst routing match-up available. Fresno St isn’t a bad team, they aren’t a good team either. Unfortunately for them everyone near them is one of those two.
Western Michigan @ No Dakota St Univ.
If you are going to make someone go to Fargo, make it be someone from Kalamazoo.
Drake @ So Dakota St Univ. (TV Match-up)
The closest South Dakota State will ever get to a rap show in their gym… I should have made that joke yesterday sorry.
Southern Illiois @ Univ. of South Dakota
Another one where I was just trying to fit teams in
Long Beach State @ Oral Roberts University (TV Match-up)
WAC
The Western Athletic Conference has seen better days than it's basketball programs see right now.
Eastern Washington @ Idaho
It’ll do, not perfect though
SE Missouri St @ Louisiana Tech
I have to assume the only reason La Tech is in the WAC is because the Southland doesn’t have FBS football. What you want my comments to be basketball related?
UT-Arlington @ New Mexico St (TV Match-up)
Cal Poly @ Utah State
Once again regional match-up with attempt to not crush someone’s Strength of Schedule
WCC
Only Catholic schools with Mary in their name were allowed to participate this year for the West Coast Conference.
UCSB @ Loyola Marymount
Nobody likes a third wheel, but a fourth wheel is nice unless you are riding a tricycle. With all the hoopla of St. Mary’s, Gonzaga and BYU in the WCC, Loyola is that fourth wheel. Not as good as the top 3, but WAAAYYYYY better than the bottom 5.
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