Finding Market Inefficiencies (cont.) - AAApril

If you are here you likely read yesterday’s post and you want to see what happens when 13 relievers try to pitch as one collective stat. If you missed yesterday’s post you can read it here.

There are a couple rules that I have to point out before we can continue. Due to ths April’s post will be a bit longer than the other months but if you’ve come this far I don’t need to ask you to bare with me, because you already are.

-                    I only simulate games. I do not partake in any part of the on field action. I only look at the box score.

-                   At any time I may adjust my pitching rotation, the 5 guys in position as starters, the guy who is called the closer and anything else for that matter.

-                   The lineup, position on the field and in the batting order is entirely decided by a computer version of Bud Black

-                   With the exception of who starts a game Computer Bud Black (CBB) has control of pitching decision.

-                   If 5 or more of my pitchers have a fatigue rating under 10% I may call up a starter from Triple A for one game, I have to send down a hitter and keep all pitchers active.

-                   I can make trades as I see fit, however I may not acquire a starting pitcher in any trade. And I can’t force any trades.

-                   The game forces me to stay under budget, unlike real baseball I can’t take Alfonso Soriano’s contract onto my team with a goofy prospect trade in July, unless I have the money to do so.

-                   I am writing these notes immediately following the end of a month. So there is no hindsight only looking forward and developing ideas to change our progress.

And now for the results. And this guy just because he looks cool. 

April saw my staff pitch to a 3.11 ERA; 5^th best in the Majors, and the 2^nd best K/9 in the league.  Despite one of the best pitching staffs in the league the lineup has been no better than a Triple A team of replacement players. Scoring 93 runs in 26 games with a team batting average of .227, the crap offense has been sparked by Jay Bruce, AJ Pierzynski and Edwin Encarnacion combining to hit .194 with 8 home runs. . Through April the “new-look” Padres are 14-12. Knowing that my pitchers are going to fatigue and be more susceptible to injury in August and September, I felt we needed to be better in April. The hitting will come around, my focus is on the pitching.

The Golden Sombrero; 4 k's in one game.
It's almost like a promotional night throughout April,
how many can this offense complete.

My real baseball theory isn’t working nearly as well as I had hoped. Computer Bud Black isn’t playing match-ups he’s just using guys until they are exhausted and then changing them. My theory was that the starter would pitch the first two innings and it’s matchups the rest of the way. So I have to many instances of 3 guys pitching 3 innings rather than 2 guys pitching 2 and 5 guys pitching 1. In the Season Opener Charlie Furbush pitched 2.1 perfect innings and then gave up 5 runs before recording another out. Jake McGee came in and gave up 6 more in 1 inning of work.

Despite my ineffectiveness as a GM the pitching staff did record 4 shutouts, which is pretty darn good. My ineffectiveness comes from my 13 man staff having 8 lefties and 5 righties. Which would likely explain why Jake McGee (8.59 ERA, 2.20 WHIP) Tim Collins (6.06 ERA, 1.90 WHIP) and Sean Doolittle (5.06 ERA, 1.75 WHIP) all had rough April’s. In fact the five worst April ERAs were all lefties. They were forced to pitch in situations they shouldn’t have been because they are perceived by the video game as LOOGYs (lefty one out guys). I have since traded Jake McGee and a prospect for Drew Storen and Tim Collins and a prospect for Bobby Parnell. We now sit at 6 lefties and 7 righties, which should make things much easier for Computer Bud Black.

I can't put WILTON Lopez into a game without thinking
he might have a MELTdown.

With 26 games you may be wondering who started what games. It was entirely random and I wouldn’t have been able to answer you in game. It was not until I looked at stats that I knew. My theory entering each game was that the guy in the closer role should not have a fatigue under 90. And the four most tired guys would be in the starting rotation as the “next four starters.” Typically I took the guy who was not tired with the hopes he could get me three innings (since CBB isn’t managing the way I had envisioned). However, I realized this would then leave him tired for three days and essentially make him unavailable untilt the next time he would arguably start. So I fixed that. But Nate Jones started 4 games and came out with an ERA of 1.45, he’s thrown 18.2 innings. Ryan Cook and Robbie Ross didn’t start any games, so we’ll make sure they have a few in May. Wilton Lopez pitched 16 innings of .56 ERA ball, leading to the awful pun in the caption above and Tony Watson picked up 2 saves. As a team we were 7 of 8 in save chances, and I don’t know if that was a 9^th inning blown save or a middle relief blown save (and in this strategy middle relief is the 4^th-8^th inning. 


We’ll see what May has in store for us.

Moneyball and Finding Market Inefficiencies

I asked myself the question last week after reading about relievers being the new money ball. Could a team win enough games to make the playoffs, let and possibly win a World Series and not spend anymoney on a Starting Pitcher; in theory, a 13 man bullpen that played match-ups on a game-to-game basis. The whole point of “moneyball” was/is to find market inefficiencies and do things nobody else was doing. The concept is surely something nobody else is doing.

The average wins needed to win a division, not the number that the team won but just one game better than the 2^nd place team in baseball over the past 5 seasons is 89.56. Is 90 wins doable without a starting pitcher. Baseball strategy would tell you absolutely not, however market inefficiencies might say otherwise.

Take the NL West for example, the average wins needed to win the division over the past 5 years is 88, and using current baseball strategy a team like the Padres is never going to get to 88 wins when LA has a payroll nearly 300% of theirs. 

The Padres $66 million payroll makes signing star players very tough. Anyone who signs a deal worth more than $10 million is making at least 15% of their total budget. Good luck finding an Ace for that kind of money, heck could luck finding a decent #3 starter for $10 million. So when they invested almost $14 million on Josh Johnson, they were essentially saying we are happy with an outfield of Alexei Amarista, Mark Kotsay, Kyle Blanks and maybe 50 games of Carlos Quentin. 

In a system of 13 relievers all playing the part of a “pitching staff, “ Josh Johnson doesn’t do you any good. In fact spending more than $3 million on any pitcher doesn’t do much good. The Padres have close to $36 million dollars locked up on 5 pitchers. If that $36 million were to be spread amongst 5 relievers at $2.5 million dollars each, they would have had $23.5 million to spend on Shin Soo Choo.

I know what you’re thinking where are they going to find 13 good relievers to make this work. Well, I took it into my own hands and set up a Franchise with the San Diego Padres on MLB2K13. My starting budget was 70.14 million dollars. I identified 13 relief pitchers that were NOT the current closer of their team (based on 2012 season, remember) and traded for all of them. For the record every trade was accepted there were no forced trades.

I entered the fictional 2013 season with a pitching staff of Charlie Furbush, Nate Jones, Aaron Crow, Tony Watson, Kelvin Herrera, Robbie Ross, Wilton Lopez, Tom Collins, Jake McGee, Ryan Cook, Sean Doolittle, Antonio Bastardo and Johnny Venters. My pitching staff cost me $6,264,000. Leaving me with $63,876,000 to assemble this lineup, and still have 8 million left.

CF: Norichikai Aoki

2B: Dustin Pedroia

LF: Alex Gordon

1B: Edwin Encarnacion

RF: Jay Bruce

SS: Ben Zobrist

C: AJ Pierzynski

3B: Brett Lawrie

BENCH: Omar Infante, Adam Eaton, Will Nieves, Cody Ransom

Each day for the next week I’ll release what happened during the month.

Tuesday – April

Wednesday – May

Thursday – June

Friday- July

Saturday – August

Sunday – September, October and a season wrap-up.

What Your Opening Day Attire Says About You

Pitchers and catchers report in 10 days, and I’m quite happy about that. We Cleveland fans know that our sports teams are going to struggle but the Browns are a joke and the Cavs aren’t even fun to watch. It means it’s time to move on to baseball season.

25 guys will break camp from the Indians and for he most part we can predict who 22 of them are going to be, harder though is to predict what players will still be Indians 3 years after you buy a jersey with their name on it.

So in a couple months when you head to Progressive Field for the Home Opener as people all shapes and sizes enter the stadium in their one size fits all replica promotion jersey, you will undoubtedly see the following.

Girl in a Nick Swisher jersey – She never watched a baseball game until 2013 when all of a sudden she became an Indians fan, her boyfriend bought it for her or else it would be pink.

Get this excrescence out of my ballpark.

Guy in THE Ben Francisco jersey – I know what you’re thinking this guy can’t exist? But he exist And it is THE Ben Francisco jersey not A Ben Francisco jersey , takin right off his back in the last of his 800 Indians ABs.

Rick Vaughn, Pedro Cerrano or Roger Dorn jersey – You are hilarious and quite honestly none of those guys are ever changing teams, so at least you won’t be the Ben Francisco guy.… until the 4^th movie comes out and Wild Thing signs a minor league deal with the Rays and is traded to Indians mid-season for Matt LaPorta. By the way if your jersey says “Wild Thing” on the back you’re not even trying. A. Subtlety goes a long way, by wearing that jersey you are saying; look at me I don’t get it. B. That never happened in the movies.

Anybody in a LaPorta jersey – Its hard to tell if this person is trying to be ironic or just doesn’t pay attention.  Until that trade to the Rays, then he’s going to go off.

Bob Feller, Larry Doby – Ahh yes the baseball historians, those who hold on to tradition and honor the best of the best, rather than ironically wearing a Jake Taylor uni.

Jason Kipnis, Michael Brantley, Justin Masterson and Carlos Santana – These guys say I’m an Indians fan and I’m a fan through the good and the bad, but I’m also smart enough and fiscally responsible enough not to buy a Ben Broussard jersey. He realizes that these four guys are the core talent of the team and desperately hope they stay in Cleveland.

Corey Kluber, Yan Gomes, Zach McAllister – Sabremetricians know better than to buy jerseys, players are just assets not humans. You can’t become attached.

People in Under-Armour and t-shirts – Wear a coat you dumbass, I know you want people to see what team you’re cheering for but you can do that with a hat.

The goatee era

Kenny Lofton, Jim Thome, Omar Vizquel, and Sandy Alomar – We got that jersey for Christmas or Chanukah when we were 9 and have worn it for every game since, be it at the ballpark or just to watch at the bar. Stay true to yourself millennials our time will come.

Oh yeah and for the record that Group of 8 cougars in the bleachers with Grady Sizemore jerseys and v-neck shirts is a Bachelorette party that was supposed to happen 5 years ago but she got pregnant and he kept drinking. But now she's celebrating independence with all 7 of her friends.

Riddle: What fits behind a coffee mug and hasn't been used since 2008? 

Welcome to Cleveland, Please Don't Decline Immediately

The Indians' newest signing, Michel Bourn, steals a base

 

The Indians have made another splash this offseason. They signed a guy a lot of Fantasy Baseball players have heard of and never watched play. It has long been said that you can't teach speed. And if speed is your one tool, you better make use of it early because you won't have it for long.

Out of 1,465 MLB outfielders since 1977, only 21 have averaged 3.86 PAs per game as well as 1 steal every 16 PAs (which equates to 40 steals in a 625 PA season).

Of those 21, three have less than 2 full seasons of experience. The infamous Quinn Mack who played 5 games for the Mariners in 1994 and stole 2 bases. And two guys you've probably heard of Mike Trout and Starling Marte. Trout and Marte may be great base stealers but with less than 250 games between the two, making a judgement now would be unfair to the others.

Out of 1,465 MLB outfielders we have left ourselves with 19 who have shown consistency over numerous years to be considered elite base stealers. Veterans such as Kenny Lofton, Vince Coleman and some guy named Rickey Henderson make the list, along with a few current players like Jacoby Ellsbury and Carl Crawford. 

***Apologies to Joe Morgan, who never played outfield and Lou Brock whose career was pretty much over by the time 1977 came around.

Most importantly one of the names on this list is Michael Bourn, the newest Cleveland Indian. 3.86 wasn't just an arbitrary number, it is the number of plate appearance per game that the recently turned 30 year old has averaged for his career.

The Indians just paid Michael Bourn, 48 million over the next 4 years, working out to about 12 million a season. Many have declared it a great move, but I'm not so eager to jump on the bandwagon. He also just turned 30.

Why look at these 19 base-burglars? Is there a correlation to a decline in stolen bases after the turning 29 a second time?  Now that we've put that out there, thanks for playing Jacoby Ellsbury and Ben Revere (Marte and trout would have been out here anyway), you're not old enough we'll see you in a couple years. Now we've got it down to 17.

Taveras stole 68 bases for the Rockie

Of course there are some guys who are older than 30 now, but aren't still playing. Like Alex Sanchez who stole 56 bases as a 26 year old, 19 and 8 in his next two seasons and never played again. Or Willy Taveras who led the NL in steals in 2008 with 68, as a 26 year old. He stole 26 over the next two years and hasn't played since. Chuck Carr was out of the league before he turned 30, after stealing 58 bases as a 25 year old. Alan Wiggins stole 133 bases from 84-85, and stole no more than 30 over the next three years; he was out of the league at 29. There are four players with 703 steals between them (a steal every 12.5 PA's) who never saw a day in the league past 30.

Michael Bourn's birthday cake from 2008.

In case you didn't catch on, now 30 years old Michael Bourn, will hit at the top of the Indians line-up. 30 isn't old in baseball, 30 really isn't that old in any sport except gymnastics. But when your career is based on being really fast, 30 IS old. The good news is he's still in the league at 30... the bad news is he hasn't yet played a game as a 30 year old, so there's still time. It does put him in the company of 13 other very good (not all great) base stealers.

Those 13 left are, Willie Wilson, Scott Podsednik, Omar Moreno, Time Raines, Juan Pierre, Chone Figgins, Carl Crawford, Kenny Lofton, Rickey Henderson, Vince Coleman, and Ron LeFlore.

Starting with the 4 guys from this generation, Kenny Lofton did play in the 2000s but I consider him to be earlier, so we'll get to him later.

Figgins makes a play. NOT

Figgins stole 4 bases last season as a 34 year old; he stole 11 the season before as a 33 year old. He did steal 34, 42 and 42 in his 30-32 seasons, but at the cost of 40 points of batting average from 29-34. He's also widely considered one of the worst free agent signings of the past 10 years.

Podsednik stole 70 bases as a 28 year old. He stole 59 as a 29 year old. He even stole 40 as a 30 year old. Then he got hurt as a 31 year old and again as a 32 year old. Came back as a 33 year old and stole 30 bags. at a clip of about 5 extra PAs per steal. When you're talking 3.68 PAs per game that’s an extra game per steal.

Pierre specifically keeps getting contracts because he steals bases he stole 68 in 2010 as a 32 year old. But in 5 seasons since turning 30 has seen less than 400 at bats in 3 of them. BTW, those of you who think Pierre is a phenomenal base stealer he gets thrown out 25% of the time for his career. And since turning 30 that number leaps to 32%

And Carl Crawford, you know that guy that the Red Sox gave $142 million dollars over 7 years to as a 29 year old and for some reason the Dodgers bailed them out? He played 30 games last year. We'll see about him, but I don't think he's ever stealing 50 bases again.

The list continues on with the leaders in stolen bases from '77 on. Stats before 1977 do not qualify.

LeFlore was the rare athlete, whose speed got better as he aged.

Ron LeFlore began his career in '74 he stole 23, 28 and 58 bases. He's the only player in the group to average more stolen bases AFTER turning 30 then he did before turning 30. In fact LeFlore was a significantly better base stealer after turning 30.

Omar Moreno also began his career before the beginning of this data chart but was not a full-time player until '77 spending most of his career with the Pirates. Stealing 400+ bases between the ages of 24-29 one per every 9.67 plate appearance. From 30 on he'd only play four more seasons and steal 75 bases, taking twice as many plate appearances per steal.

There will never be an Indians outfielder even close to Lofton defensively.

Kenny Lofton played until he was 40, so to take an entire average of his steals after turning 30 wouldn't be quite right. He still stole 23 bases as a 40 year old, but Michael Bourn isn't going to be here at 40. Lofton became a full time player at 25, and averaged 65 steals a season until he turned 30. From 30-34 he still was an every-day center fielder, but he stole only 30 bases a year. In fact after stealing 75 as a 29 year-old, he only stole more than 35 one more time in his career.

Willie Wilson was 20 when he got his debut, but didn't see significant at bats until he turned 23. In 15 years with the Royals, Wilson stole 612 bases. But like Lofton, Wilson averaged 55 a year between 23-29, but from 30-33 he averaged just 38, and didn't see full-time at bats the rest of his career.

Coleman stole 100 bases or more for three straight seasons. He was stealing a base every 6 times he stepped to the plate. Then he turned 26 an ONLY stole 81. He turned 28 and ONLY stole 77. And though he was still stealing a base one out of every 10-plate appearance, he never saw 500 at bats after turning 28.

Raines's in his first full time season at 21 stole 71 bases. For those 9 years until he turned 30 he averaged 64 steals a season. Like Lofton, Baines played until he was in his 40s when he had no business stealing any bases. He could still hit .280 which made him a valuable DH or 4th OF. His steal decline could be attributed to injury when he was 28, but from 30-34 Raines only stole an average of 36 bases a year.

Comparing anyone to Rickey Henderson is really a waste of time because nobody will ever do what he did on the base paths. But even Henderson saw a decline after he turned 30. Yes, he still stole 50+ bases 4 times after turning 30. But when you are accustomed to a guy stealing 80 in a bad year, all of a sudden 58 doesn't looks that special. From his age 21-29 seasons, Henderson averaged 85 steals a year (1 steal per 7.23 PAs) From his 30-34 years he averaged only 60 (1 steal per 9.8 PAs). Even when his career had past him by he was still stealing a base ever 14 at bats, but it was only 30 a season. 

Even the greatest base stealer of all time, Rickey Henderson, saw a decrease in steals and speed as he got older.

Is 30 the true age of decline? Probably not, it seems more likely to be 32 or 33, however, the Indians signed on for 4 years of Bourn. And he'll be here making $12 million dollars at the true age of decline either way.

What did the Trade Deadline mean for the Tribe?

The Indians needed a starter, they needed a right handed bat and they also needed a bullpen arm that could keep them in games when they don’t have a lead.

Lars Anderson is none of those things. Brent Lillibridge isn’t either. But maybe some of these guys at Triple A are???

I will accept the argument that they didn’t have the prospects needed to get Hunter Pence or Shane Victorino. They also didn’t have what was needed to get Zach Greinke . But, I won’t accept the argument that they did not have the players to make any deals. 1B and OF Gaby Sanchez was traded to the Pirates for Gorkys Hernandez, basically the 6^th best outfielder in their Farm System and a pitcher who doesn’t show up anywhere in their Top 20 prospects. Sanchez could have been had for Thomas Neal (acquired for Orlando Cabrera last season) and the same guy they traded for Lars Anderson. And the Indians would have lost what? Nothing.

I will accept the argument that one player can’t turn a team around. But I won’t accept that the right role players can help make a playoff push.  The AL Central will come down to whether or not Kevin Youkilis, Francisco Liriano and Brett Myers are better than Anibal Sanchez  and Omar Infante. In 45 service years those 5 players have combined for 5 All-Star appearances, yet those 5 players were good enough for the other two teams competing.

I will accept the argument that Chris Antonetti is handcuffed by a cheap owner. But I won’t accept that the Indians couldn’t have improved this team without adding money to the payroll.  Once again we visit Gaby Sanchez. He is up for arbitration this season but his .200 BA isn’t going to help him much there, he’s making about 500K for 2012. 

Was Gaby Sanchez going to make the Indians a playoff team, who knows. But Gaby Sanchez is a right handed bat with 20 homer pop. Instead the Indians picked up another left handed 1B that will do nothing other than block Matt LaPorta from ever getting called up.

This really shouldn’t have come as a surprise to anyone. When the team traded for Lillibridge we should have realized the move was strictly made to keep the wear and tear off of Kipnis, Brantley and Cabrera, which is the 2013 core. The moves the Indians made, allowed them to be sellers in the quietest way possible. The door is open for a lot of waiver deals. Kotchman, Damon, Lopez, Lowe and anyone in the bullpen who’s last name doesn’t start with a P.

The Tribe front office took the easy way out, rather than calling themselves sellers and alienating an already alienated fan base or risking prospects they just did nothing of consequence. Much easier to explain in two weeks when they are 8 games out and fighting for 3^rd.

The Other 58 (aka I'm so glad it's over)

As promised the final 58 match-ups. This is pretty much entirely guess work, keep RPIs close, keep travel distance close and look for interesting scenarios that you can find without tons of research.

Nobody can really explain how it’s done by the big boys. One day we can find out. Some teams may not want to travel, others may be debating on whether to come back the following year or wait a year. Like Old Dominion did this year against Cleveland State.

After numerous hours of my BracketBuster Map, Google Maps, RealTime RPI and many other things. I’ve finalized the last 58 match-ups with an average of 32 RPI points between the teams (25 points for the TV games, so not bad) and an average 577.9 miles per match-up, excluding Hawaii.

In order to make it easiest for the folks to follow I’ll do it by Conference in Alphabetical Order with only the HOME TEAMS. So if you aren’t sure where to find the team you are looking for use “Find” in your browser.

America East
Home of the perennial 16 seed, the only team in D1 Basketball without a win and one of only two conferences not to get on TV. Its likely the winner of this conference will have to win in Dayton (if you know what I mean)

Fairfield @ Albany
Both teams could use this as a kickstart to jump to the top of their leagues
Presbyterian @ Maine
Teams are one apart in RPI, despite a decent chunk of mileage
Hampton @ New Hampshire
Two more teams that are one apart in RPI
James Madison @ Vermont
Vermont went to the NIT last year and is one game behind conference leaders Stony Brook. JMU has struggled in the CAA so far.

Big Sky
Weber St. has come out of nowhere and Montana is right there as well. The winner is probably looking at a 15 seed, but with the right match-up could slide up to 14.

Portland St @ Montana
Relative proximity
UC Davis @ Northern Arizona
My apologies to Northern Arizona, but good news is you get a win.
Texas A&M CC @ Northern Colorado
Remember when they made the tournament and everyone was calling them TamiFlu?
San Jose St @ Sacramento State
Proximity
Nevada @ Weber State (see yesterday’s TV match-ups)

Big South
Is the top of the Big South for real? This is the only chance to find out. Teams will need a good showing to help boost the tourney winners chance of avoiding a play-in (ahem Opening Round) game.

Siena @ Charleston Southern
Charleston Southern will have a say in the Big South title when things are said and done. Siena has been to the tourney before but aren’t in the race this season.
UNC Wilmington @ Coastal Carolina
If Coastal Carolina were an away rteam this year they would have been on TV. Probably the #2 or #3 snub for home teams.
IUPUI @ Gardner-Webb
Another average match-up simply due to travel and league restrictions I tried to set.
UMBC @ Radford
I would have loved to send UMBC to Towson for the battle of 2nd worst team in Maryland (Yes, the Wizards are that bad). But both were away teams.
Delaware St @ VMI
The last game I picked, so it’s not a great match-up. But surprised that the travel worked out.

Big West
Let’s just put this out there the Big West is a nightmare to project especially with most of the teams being between 220-340 in RPI. They have to travel somewhere but it has to be reasonable.

Not going to discuss each one, because they are mostly just regional.

Southern Utah @ CS-Fullerton
Idaho St @ CS-Northridge
Hawaii @ UC-Irvine
UTSA @ UC-Riverside
Probably the best game of the bunch, despite the travel. The RoadRunners have a great young coach and are right there in the Southland.
Texas St @ Pacific

Colonial Athletic Conference
Very few mid-major conferences have sent two DIFFERENT teams to the Final Four. In fact this is the only one to do it in at least 20 years. But this year the Strength of Schedule at the top of the league has the winner looking at a 14 or 15. GMU and VCU will be on TV, but need their league mates to pick up some good wins as well.

Rider @ Delaware
81 miles apart, 6 spots apart in RPI. Could you ask for an easier one?
UNC Asheville @ George Mason (TV Match-up)
Campbell @ Georgia State
Similar RPIs, not to far apart. Becomes the theme when you are predicting 71 games.
Niagara @ Hofstra
I don’t understand Hofstra they are 7-16. Yet may have single handedly destroyed two teams chances at at-large bids (wins against Iona and Cleveland State)
Youngstown St @ Northeastern
Two teams in good conferences that are looking to break out from the middle of the pack.
Buffalo @ VCU (TV Match-up)

Horizon League
Very few mid-major conferences have sent the SAME team to the Final Four in back to back years. In fact this is the only one to do it EVER. But that team is in a down year and a lack of recognition outside said team hurts this league in the National Spotlight. There are some very good teams though in this conference.

Indiana State @ Butler
I’ve heard rumors this game has already been leaked. It’s a no-brainer. Two tourney teams from last year, in true mid-major conferences, 80 miles apart and very close in RPI.
UNI @ Cleveland State (TV Match-up)
Marist @ Detroit
The ever-underachieving Detroit team really should be able to win this game. As you will read below I wanted to send BGSU there, but that didn’t work.
Western Illinois @ Green Bay
Two teams that are similar in RPI, similar in record and have moderate travel.
Oakland @ Milwaukee
Oakland has probably underperformed this season, but Milwaukee might bring out the best in them. If I had to put any game of this group on TV, I’d pick this one (over Kent State/College of Charleston)

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference
The MAAC is in the midst of a logjam up top. Three teams sit there tied for first at 9-2, and all have 16 or 17 wins. The question must be asked if Manhattan and Loyola MD are for real. People seem to think Iona. This is exactly what BracketBusters is all about.

Hartford @ Canisius
Close in RPI and a bus ride distance for these two teams that have combined for 8 wins on the year.
Akron @ Iona (TV Match-up)
Old Dominion @ Loyola Maryland (TV Match-up)
Stony Brook @ Manhattan
58 miles apart, in terms of proximity there are only two or three other combinations of conference leaders in different leagues that are closer than these two (Can you name them?)
Towson @ Saint Peter’s
Towson’s losing streak made the Cavaliers sorrows last season look reasonable. This is a game they can win and get to TWO on the season

Mid American Conference
Yes I am biased about this conference, it’s not as good as the Horizon. It hasn’t been for a few years, yet it still gets better coverage and more attention. However with three teams who could all surprise people come March it’s still tough at the top.

Tennesee State @ Ball State
Similar teams, fair amount of travel. Just kind of fit.
Boston University @ Bowling Green
I had Bowling Green going to Detroit for a picture perfect RPI match-up. And then realized Bowling Green was a home team. So instead they’ll host Boston U – the team directly ahead of them in RPI
Loyola-Chicago @ Central Michigan
One of 3 MAC/HL games in my predictions, I couldn’t pull the trigger on sending Wright State to Miami.
College of Charleston @ Kent State
These are the teams most likely snubbed for not getting a TV game. So they should play each other. Charleston is familiar with the area as they visited Cleveland last year for the NIT
Tennesee-Martin @ Miami (OH)
Proximity over anything else here just over 250 miles apart.
Valparaiso @ Ohio (TV Match-up)

MEAC
Only three teams from the Mid Eastern Athletic Conference participated this year, which is a shame because the only good one (Norfolk St 16-6) didn’t.

William & Mary @ Morgan State
Regional match-up for teams that are barely even relevant to alumni and students (Right Jed?)

Missouri Valley Conference
Ask anyone and they will tell you how good the Valley is. And then when they get two teams in the tournament the excuse is they beat each other up. I might buy that this year. 7 teams are within a game of 3rd place. But none of them are within four of 1st.

Toledo @ Bradley
Geno Ford left the MAC to head to Bradley where he hasn't exactly seen greener pastures yet.
St. Mary’s @ Creighton (TV Match-up)
Tennessee Tech @ Evansville
Will be a better match-up then the blind eye thinks. Tennesse Tech is the most likely team to beat Murray St in the OVC.
Morehead St @ Illinois State
Another OVC/MVC pairing.
Lamar @ Missouri State
These two could have been TV teams as well. Both still have a shot at the Tourney, Lamar more so then their host.

Ohio Valley Conference
The league of undefeated Murray State. The Racers have grabbed some attention for the OVC, which is an otherwise mediocre conference. They do have some tourney history though Morehead St the most recent upset special.

Eastern Michigan @ Austin Peay
EMU will have to Go Peay before the trip down south
Northern Illinois @ Eastern Illinois
Northern and Eastern aren’t as close as you would think but still a do-able bus trip
Wright State @ Eastern Kentucky
Teams are ten spots apart in RPI and 158 miles away from each other.
Central Arkansas @ Jacksonville State
Another location game, finding placing for all those teams in Tennessee and Kentucky that can’t play each other is tough.
Wichita St @ Murray State (TV Match-up)
Illinois-Chicago @ SIU Edwardsville
Illinois is way bigger than I thought. These schools significantly closer in RPI then they are in distance.

Southern
Another half participation league, difference is that arguably the three best teams out of this conference are in.

Liberty @ Appalachian State
Meh? It was getting late last night and I needed some good regional stuff.
Drexel @ Davidson (TV Match-up)

Southland
What can you say about the Southland other than that the winner of this conference gets the right to play in Ohio’s version of... JERSEY!

Disclaimer: The match-ups here were essentially how can I get these teams games without making someone travel 1200 miles.

Wofford @ McNeese State
See disclaimer
High Point @ Nicholls State
See disclaimer
IPFW @ Northwestern State
See disclaimer
Montana St @ Sam Houston University
1739 miles away, but can you really complain if you play your home games in Montana?
Binghamton @ Southeastern Louisiana
Let’s put it bluntly Binghamton is really really bad. They had to go somewhere that nobody could consider halfway decent and sending them to UC Davis wasn’t going to work.
Winthrop @ Stephen F. Austin
Remember that disclaimer?

Summit League
I actually like the Summit League it’s not a bunch of pretentious college basketball wannabes like the other league it shares man borders with (cough cough Missouri cough cough Valley), but every year they produce a good team or two. This year it’s Oral Roberts and South Dakota St. both who will feature on TV.

Fresno St @ Univ. of Missouri-KC
The worst routing match-up available. Fresno St isn’t a bad team, they aren’t a good team either. Unfortunately for them everyone near them is one of those two.
Western Michigan @ No Dakota St Univ.
If you are going to make someone go to Fargo, make it be someone from Kalamazoo.
Drake @ So Dakota St Univ. (TV Match-up)
The closest South Dakota State will ever get to a rap show in their gym… I should have made that joke yesterday sorry.
Southern Illiois @ Univ. of South Dakota
Another one where I was just trying to fit teams in
Long Beach State @ Oral Roberts University (TV Match-up)

WAC
The Western Athletic Conference has seen better days than it's basketball programs see right now.

Eastern Washington @ Idaho
It’ll do, not perfect though
SE Missouri St @ Louisiana Tech
I have to assume the only reason La Tech is in the WAC is because the Southland doesn’t have FBS football. What you want my comments to be basketball related?
UT-Arlington @ New Mexico St (TV Match-up)
Cal Poly @ Utah State
Once again regional match-up with attempt to not crush someone’s Strength of Schedule

WCC
Only Catholic schools with Mary in their name were allowed to participate this year for the West Coast Conference.

UCSB @ Loyola Marymount
Nobody likes a third wheel, but a fourth wheel is nice unless you are riding a tricycle. With all the hoopla of St. Mary’s, Gonzaga and BYU in the WCC, Loyola is that fourth wheel. Not as good as the top 3, but WAAAYYYYY better than the bottom 5.