Group G: The Group of Death

Group G: Germany, Ghana, USA, Portugal

HOW THEY FINISH:
Germany 2-0-1 7 PTS
USA 1-0-2 5 PTS
Portugal 1-1-1 4 PTS
Ghana 0-3-0 0 PTS

When the group was announced, it was doom and gloom for the Americans. Ghana, the team that has knocked them out the past two World Cups, Portugal and Cristiano Ronaldo and Germany, one of the best teams in the world. The media has turned Ghana into a great story line, but hasn't said anything about what Ghana have. What they have is a team that is much older than 4 years ago, a team who's top striker went from Sunderland to World Soccer Power Al Ain FC (in the United Arab Emirates) and three very inexperienced goalkeepers. Portugal is a one man show. Germany are an extremely talented team, but does any one know that team better than the US's Head Coach. It's a tough group of course, but it's very possible.

PLAYERS TO WATCH:
Miroslav Klose (GER) - Klose could break the all time World Cup scoring record

Thomas Mueller (GER) - 4 years ago, Mueller won the Golden Boot and was named Best Young Player, scary thing is he was only 20. Now at 24 and with a World Cup under his belt, he could be the man that wins the whole cup for the Die Mannschaft

Michael Bradley (USA) - Long considered undeserving of his role on the US team, Bradley is now the type of player who could likely start for at least 75% of the teams in this World Cup. Given a more attacking role out of the midfield, Bradley will be crucial to the US success.

Jozy Altidore (USA) - The striker has been out of form for nearly a year, but two goals against Nigeria may have gotten his confidence going.

Fabian Johnson (USA) - The world will know who Fabian Johnson is at the end of the next 10 days. He attacks out of the back unlike any other American defender has ever done.

Cristiano Ronaldo (POR) - Obvious names department

Joao Moutinhio (POR) - Somebody besides CR7 is going to have to do something for the Portuguese to advance. Moutinho can dictate play a lot like the Italians look for in Andrea Pirlo.

Jordan Ayew (GHA) - A popular name in the headlines recently, Ayew netted a hat trick for Ghana in their final tuneup before the World Cup against South Korea.

Asamoah Gyan (GHA) - If Jurgen Klinsmann were the head coach at Ghana, nothing about the past 4 years would have put Gyan on the squad, let alone made him captain. He left the EPL to join El Ain (where he has scored 59 goals in 47 games), after a missing a penalty in South Africa, and missing another huge PK in the African Cup of Nations, he took a "sabbatical." Remind you of anyone?

Group E and F: When Vacation Lets You Down

Yesterday I posted the following on Facebook...
Not gonna get a blog post out before the games start today but here's a quick synopsis of what they would say.
Group E: France and Honduras (CONCACAF Bandwagon); Benzema and Pogba (FRA) Espinosa and Garrido (HON) Shaqiri (SUI), Montero and Valencia (ECU)
Group F: Argentina and Bosnia and Herzegovina (unfair that there are 5 countries in this group)
Messi, Aguero (ARG) Dzeko (B&H), Obi Mikel and Moses (NIG), Dejagah (IRN)

Let me expand on it quickly and then we can move on to Group G!

Group E: France, Honduras, Switzerland, Ecuador

HOW THEY FINISH:
France: 3-0-0 9 PTS
Honduras 1-1-1 4 PTS (Advance on Goal Differential)
Switzerland 1-1-1 4 PTS
Ecuador 0-0-3 0 PTS

France are the class of the group, but then again. France historically struggle when they are the class of the Group re: 2010, 2002. Common sense says Honduras has no chance, but Ecuador have not won a game outside of Quito since 2012, the Estadio Olimpico Atahualpa is 9,127 feet above sea level (or 7/10 of a mile higher than Mile High Stadium). And the Swiss qualified out of the easiest group in all Confederations combined.


Group F Argentina, Nigeria, Iran, Bosnia and Herzegovina

HOW THEY FINISH:
Argentina 3-0-0 9 PTS
Bosnia and Herzegovina 1-1-1 4 PTS
Nigeria 0-1-2 2 PTS
Iran 0-2-1 1 PT

What should be a cake walk for the Argentines, is certainly a close race for 2nd place and could come down to how close the teams play against La Albiceleste. Bosnia has the slight edge over Nigeria, because I think Misimovic to Dzeko is stronger than Obi Mikel to Moses. Iran, another team just happy to be there.

Group D: Group of Death Jr.

These Headers are harder to make than the Post itself. I'll work on it, but for now just enjoy my brilliant writing ability.

Group D: Uruguay, Costa Rica, Italy, England

HOW THEY FINISH:
Italy 2-0-1 7 PTS
England 1-0-2 5 PTS
Uruguay 0-1-2 2 PTS
Costa Rica 0-2-1 1 PT

Luis Suarez is unlikely to be able to play tomorrow, which really hurts Uruguay's chances to advance. While they may not need him against Costa Rica, the Ticos are not as bad as people think. Let's not forget it to a snow storm for the US to edge out a 1-0 victory at home over the 2nd place finishers in CONCACAF. The loss of Suarez in that particular game in which Uruguay MUST take 3 points, really benefits Italy and England. Italy is a team deep enough and experienced enough that might be able to win this tournament (they are one of maybe 4 teams that I actually think can win it). This team is built an awful lot like the 2006 Champions, but with better strikers. England are England.

PLAYERS TO WATCH:

Wayne Rooney (ENG) - From the obvious names department, it's Wayne Rooney.

Alex Oxlade Chamberlain (ENG) - Everyone quick to point to the youngster Luke Shaw (just 18), but if a young player is going to make a difference for the Three Lions this go around, it will be Chamberlain (20). The midfielder loves to shoot from distance and is a strong dribbler, with size that makes him very hard to dispossess.

Daniel Sturridge (ENG) - Sturridge makes his World Cup debut, coming off a phenomenal club season which saw him score 21 goal. The 24 year old is inexperienced on the International Level, but dont think that will stop him.

Luis Suarez (URU) - Sturridge's 21 goals were second only to his club teammate at Liverpool, Luis Suarez. Even if Suarez can't get on the pitch he'll be exciting to watch, because he might bite somebody.

Edinson Cavani (URU) - If Sturridhe is out, a lot will rest on the shoulders of Cavani. Diego Forlan can't carry the team like he did in 2010, and will likely be relegated to substitute duties.

Keylor Navas (CRC) - Costa Rica finished CONCACAF qualifying with the best defense allowing only 7 goals in the 10 games Hexagonal. Goalkeeper, Keylor Navas deserves a lot of credit, in a group full of World Class Keepers (Joe Hart, Gianluigi Buffon) he fits right in.

Andrea Pirlo (ITA) - Il architetto (the architect), there may not be a better distributor of the ball at the tournament. Pirlo has aged with grace, now 35, but still a maestro in the center midfield.

Mario Balotelli (ITA) - Though there will be no clever undershirts in Brazil, the oft in the news Balotelli is surprisingly graceful for a guy who is 6'2. The striker puts speed, agility, strength and exquisite technical ability into a complete package, however the mental pillar may not always be there.

Lorenzo Isigne (ITA) - If Insigne and Balotelli are paired up top together it will look like a scene out of My Giant, Insigne is 5'4 (and you thought Messi was short) but extremely creative and fast.

GAME OF THE GROUP:
England vs Uruguay: The second game of group play for both teams, could likely be a return for Suarez against a team full of players he's seen every week for the past few seasons. If both teams draw in their openers (which I predict), Uruguay will be forced to go after it, facing an Italian squad that plays very tough defense. Should be an open match with plenty of star power and attacking.

Group C: Old Dogs, Old Tricks

Group C: Colombia, Greece, Japan, Cote D'Ivoire

HOW THEY FINISH:
Cote D'Ivoire 1-0-2 5PTS
Japan 1-1-1 4 PTS
Colombia 1-1-1 4 PTS
Greece 1-2 3 PTS

In what is quite possibly the most wide open group in the whole tournament a lot of defensive tactics and low scoring games will be in store. Greece is known for their defensive tactics and boring soccer. Ivory Coast have one of the best midifelders in the world right now, Japan always have the potential to overachieve. But the biggest story in the group is a World Cup return for Colombia after a 16 year drought, having made it back World Cup for the first time since 1998. Los Cafeteros (The Coffee Growers) earned a Top 8 seed and this is a dream group for them, but they will not be able to overcome the loss of their star striker, Monaco man, Radamel Falcao.

PLAYERS TO WATCH:

Keisuke Honda (JAP) -  To the left a quick refresher from the 2010 World Cup, on what Honda can do on set pieces.

Shinji Kagawa (JAP) - The Manchester United man,  is a creative clinical passer out of the mdifield and became the first Asian to score a hat trick in the EPL back in 2013.

Didier Drogba (CIV) -  Drogba still has it,  even at 36, the man who scored 100 goals for Chelsea in his career has 65 in his international career.

Yaya Toure (CIV) - Quite possibly the worlds best all-around midfielder. Toure's fitness is in queston after he suffered a knock in his final premier league game, and could loom large over the Les Elephants chances.

Lacina Traore (CIV) - Traore is 6'8 (that's an inch taller than Kawhi Leonard), that's reason enough to watch the striker especially against a bunch of 5'9 defenders from Japan.

Faryd Mondragon (COL) - Mondragon was Colombia's #1 keeper last time they made the World Cu (16 years ago if you read up above), now 42, he would be the oldest player ever in a World Cup. Group C features the 3 oldest players on rosters (and Drogba who is 7th).

James Rodriguez (COL) - Someone has to take Radamel Falcao's place and Colombia will look to 22 year old James Rodriguez, often called "the Valderrama of this era." Rodriguez plays in France at Monaco, so we don't hear from him much, but he should be mentioned with the likes of Oscar, Eden Hazard, Kagawa and Thomas Muller.

Jesse Katsopolis (GRE) - The Greeks are so boring to watch, I suggest three reruns of Full House during their matches. Though you'll need 4 episodes, if you choose to fast forward through the commercials.


GAME OF THE GROUP:
Japan vs Colombia - Once again this is the third game for both teams, and very likely will decide who moves on. Both teams could be looking for victories which could make for an exciting attack minded game, with a lot of players we don't get to see every day.

Group B: Finals Rematch

Group B: Spain, Netherlands, Chile, Australia

HOW THEY FINISH:
Spain 2-0-1 7 PTS (finishes first via goal differential)
Netherlands 2-0-1 7 PTS
Chile 0-2-1 1 PT
Australia 0-2-1 1 PT

 

A quick little reminder of what happened 4 years ago.

If you are expecting an exciting game tomorrow afternoon in a rematch of the 2010 Final, Spain vs Netherlands don't get your hopes up. A draw for these two teams is exactly what the doctor ordered, though one of them will have to play Brazil in the first stage of the knockout round, I expect both to go for big numbers against Chile and Australia, not against eachother. As for those two teams, neither can be to excited about landing here. I can't see Australia getting out of any group with the squad they have this go around, but Chile might have felt they could have done better in their home continent.

PLAYERS TO WATCH:

Alexis Sanchez (CHI) - The Barcelona man scores a goal every three games for Chile, but one goal in three games isn't going to be enough if they want to get out of this group.

Arjen Robben, Wesley Sneijder and Robin Van Persie (NET) - The trio of 30 year olds, have 259 caps and 92 goals amongst them.

Bruno Martins-Indi (NET) - In 2010 the Netherlands featured a strong veteran defense with a bunch of attackers in their prime. Now the attack is aging and the defense is very inexperienced. The 8 defenders on the squad average less than 12 caps. The 22 year old Martins Indi will be at the forefront of the
Oranje defense, but also large contributor to the "Total Football" style of attack.

Tim Cahill (AUS) - This may be the last hurrah for the Australians, a squad that in 2010 featured 9 players over 30 and the next generation just isn't there. Cahill, who has retired to the MLS since his work with Everton, will be the main scoring threat for the Socceroos, who might have to be happy with just being there.

I already used this with Brazil, but do you really need to know who to watch for Spain? They won the World Cup in 2010, they won the European championship in 2012, the roster features 23 players that played in the Champions League last season. For pure entertainment value watch Juan Mata try to play defense, a lot like Sasha Pavlovic "his offense is his defense." Unlike Sasha Pavlovic he's an incredible offensive talent.

Group A: Brazil and the others

GROUP A: Brazil, Croatia, Mexico, Cameroon

HOW THEY FINISH:
Brazil   3-0 9 PTS
Croatia 1-1-1 4 PTS (advance on Goal Differential)
Mexico 1-1-1 4 PTS
Cameroon 0-3 0 PTS

Brazil are the clear favorites in the group, as only once in World Cup history has the host nation not advanced to the knockout stages. For Croatia, any result today against Brazil would be huge for them. With Mexico and Cameroon not kicking off until the next day, both team will have nearly a full day to make tactical adjustments based on the result. If Brazil were to win, as is expected, Mexico and Cameroon would very likely play safe soccer and be sure to take a point. Knowing that then a win vs Croatia would likely send them through. Ultimately Mexico and Croatia will meet in the final match of group play and the winner will likely advance. Cameroon just doesn't have enough this time around.

Samuel Eto'o responds to Jose Mourinho's "old man" criticism, with a goal
celebration fit for an old man.

PLAYERS TO WATCH:

Samuel Eto'o (CAM) - 33 year old former
Chelsea man Samuel Eto'o, will be the key to any success that Cameroon. They are a side with very little experience and not nearly as talented as a few of the other African teams in the tournament.

Guillermo Ochoa (MEX) - In 2006, then 20 Ochoa served as the back-up and looked to be the clear future of goalkeeping for Mexico. Then in 2010 Mexico went with the more experienced veteran in Oscar Perez. Now 28, it should be Ochoa's chance to grab the spotlight. However, there is still question as to whether he will start over another veteran, Jesus Corona.

Gio Dos Santos (MEX) - You can talk about Chicharito all you want, but Dos Santos is Mexico's best field player, he may not score tons of goals but the quick footed playmaker will certainly factor into a few decisions throughout.

Luka Modric (CRO) - The best midfielder in Group A, and one of the best in the World. Modric's coming out party should have been the 2010 World Cup, the 24 year old was set to make a big impact, however a broken leg kept him out. Now he is the leader of a tough Croatia team that will mix experience with youth.


Mario Mandzukic (CRO) - Though Mandzukic will miss Croatia's first match against Brazil, due to this red card in the playoff vs Iceland, Croatia will certainly need him for the Cameroon and Mexico matches. Mario scored 33 goals in 54 matches for Munich over the past two seasons.

All of them (BRA) - Singling out players on Brazil would be to name 8 or 9 guys. Obviously Neymar is the player everyone is looking forward to seeing. The 22 year old has scored 31 goals in 49 games at the full National level. Hulk, Dani Alves, Oscar, David Luiz, Julio Cesar are just a few other names to look for.

GAME OF THE GROUP:

Mexico vs Croatia - this match should likely feature some dynamic football, with both teams going for the win to advance out of the group. Mexico who snuck in to the Cup by the skin of their teeth, could actually have a chance to move on.

Why does this World Cup seem Weak?

According to FIFA Rankings the 2014 World Cup should be the toughest World Cup since the tournament in expanding to 32 teams in 1998. If the rankings say it's the strongest its been in 5 go arounds, why does it feel like a very weak tournament?

First things first FIFA Rankings are a mess, they always have been and they will be until they figure out a way to weigh results differently. Don't believe me, I'll give you an example from the past four World Cups

Year	Host	Over ranked	Under ranked	Why?	What happened?
1998	France	USA #12 Japan #14	France 18th	The host team doesn’t need to qualify, so they don’t play the amount of meaningful point earning matches.	France won the WC, Japan and US finished 31st and 32nd respectively (though not all that respectively if you know what I mean
2002	South Korea/Japan	France #1 Argentina #3 Portugal #5	Turkey #22 South Korea #40	France were coming off a Confederation Cup in in 2001 and a World Cup win in 1998. Portugal was coming off an undefeated run in qualifying. And Argentina had won COMNEBOL, beating one of the worst Brazilian teams of the past 20 years.	Turkey and South Korea played for 3rd place, France, Argentina and Portugal failed to advance
2006	Germany	#2 Czech Republic USA #5	#48 Ghana	No fricken clue	A group of USA, Italy, Ghana and Czehc Republic saw the two lower ranked teams advance.
2010	South Africa	The ones that lost	The ones that won.	Three teams entered South Africa with FIFA rankings lower than 75. The firs time ever.	5 of 16 teams in the knockout were ranked 30 or lower.  And of course Spain, the heavy favorites actually won.

So FIFA rankings are goofed up in the first place, but the rankings for the 2014 World Cup show that the highest ranked teams that will be missing out are Ukraine at 17, Scotland at 22 and Denmark at 23. In 2002, three teams in the Top 10 all missed out (Columbia, Netherlands and Yugoslavia).

This is the first year the Top 15 in the final rankings before the tournament begins have all made the World Cup. In fact it's the first year since expansion to 32 teams that the entire Top 10 will be competing. But it still feels like a very weak set of 32 teams. Why is that?

I have three theories, the pumping up/pimping of the South American teams (partially due to playing at home and also due to not having to qualify against Brazil). In past years all the teams in CONMEBOL had to play Brazil twice in qualifying, this year that didn’t happen, over the past two cycles Brazil had lost 4 of 36 qualifiers. Not to mention with 4.5 of the 9 teams qualifying, all you had to do was go .500 to make it to the World Cup.  In Europe going .500 gets you third or fourth place. I’m not buying Colombia especially with their best player Radamel Falcao, out. Though their defense was strong, CONMBEOL was the 2^nd lowest scoring confederation in qualifying this cycle. And if I’m not a believer in Colombia, than it becomes even harder to believe in Chile or Ecuador. Six of Chile’s 9 wins were against the 4 teams that didn’t advance, While Ecuador didn’t win a game outside of Quito the entire qualification process.  

It could also be age. In 2010, there were 180 players over 30. This year there are also 180 players over 30. Though the numbers say otherwise, it seems like more teams are going to be relying on 30+ year olds, rather than using them as experienced veterans. Players aged 26-29 are typically at their best, many of them are playing in their second World Cup, while players under 26 are likely in their first. In 2010 players ages 26-29 scores 68 goals, players 25 or under scored 51 and players over 30 scored 33 (9 of them coming from Miroslav Klose and Diego Forlan). That next group of 26-29 year old (with the exceptions of Messi, Ronaldo and Rooney) have yet to arrive and many teams will be relying on players outside that golden range. Of course players don’t just hit 30 and stop being able to produce, but when you are looking to a 33 year old Samuel Eto’o or 34 year old Tim Cahill as your main source of goals it doesn’t make for much excitement. England might start Lampard and Gerrard next to eachother, which could be ugly but for the fact that all the other midfielders in Group D are old as well. France will likely have Bacary Sagna and Patrice Evra on the wings but won’t have to face any great wingers that will execute against them in the Group Stage. There may be a lot of young talent under 23 talent this year, 

The third reason, is the draw just didn't produce intriguing matchups. Many of these games don’t get me excited and in turn it leads me to believe the field is weak. Due to the asinine process of seeding and pots, Switzerland and Colombia earned seeds which meant teams like England, Netherlands, France and Portugal were left in the Europe pot. I’ve still yet to figure out how Colombia, a team that didn’t qualify for the past three World Cups had enough points to get seeded. But Switzerland’s road to Pot A is pretty ridiculous as well. Having to beat the likes of Iceland, Slovenia, Norway, Albania and Cyprus, quite possibly the easiest group in the entire qualifying process throughout the world, to advance (Belgium is for real, by the way totally deserving of their seed). With two teams (and the possibility of a Luis Suarez-less Uruguay side making three, though you can't predict injuries in the draw) that I consider to be very mediocre winning seeds, it simply makes a couple groups extremely dull. Take out Columbia and Switzerland from Pot A and toss in Italy and Netherlands (the next two teams).  The draw might have led to a few more exciting games. Personally there isn’t a game in Group C that remotely interests me. But I’d be glued to the TV for an Ivory Coast/Italy match. In 2010, I watched almost every game. I wanted to cheer for underdogs like New Zealand, I loved seeing North Korea give Brazil everything they could handle. This year the stories aren’t there, it doesn’t feel like there is drama outside of being an American cheering for the US, in a spot where nobody gives them a chance.

This World Cup has 5 or 6 very good teams, 20 mediocre teams and 6-7 teams that are just happy to be there.  When you pair all three of the above theories together it comes down to a lot of ok teams playing against eachother. When average teams from South America or Europe beat other average teams from South America or Europe they get better points than when pretty good African teams beat average African teams, and the FIFA Rankings kind of screw that up. The fact that the 26-29 year old age range, doesn’t seem to really be on display this go around, leads me to believe we’ve got a bunch of teams with old guys and young guys which leads to tactical soccer that might not be all that eye catching. And the simple fact that Switzerland and Columbia were seeded go to show that many other teams didn’t take advantage of opportunities and found themselves in situations they may not have expected. In March Madness parity is awesome, because there are 48 games in 4 days, if two teams are shooting 17% at halftime and the score is 15-11 you can watch another game. The World Cup doesn’t work like that, you commit 2 hours to each game. There are great 0-0 games but there are some really dull 3-1 games as well. Two average soccer teams playing each other, might produce drama but it isn’t always dramatic and often times can be very unexciting.

But it’s the World Cup, so ignore everything I just said and enjoy!

Finding Market Inefficiencies (cont.) - AAApril

If you are here you likely read yesterday’s post and you want to see what happens when 13 relievers try to pitch as one collective stat. If you missed yesterday’s post you can read it here.

There are a couple rules that I have to point out before we can continue. Due to ths April’s post will be a bit longer than the other months but if you’ve come this far I don’t need to ask you to bare with me, because you already are.

-                    I only simulate games. I do not partake in any part of the on field action. I only look at the box score.

-                   At any time I may adjust my pitching rotation, the 5 guys in position as starters, the guy who is called the closer and anything else for that matter.

-                   The lineup, position on the field and in the batting order is entirely decided by a computer version of Bud Black

-                   With the exception of who starts a game Computer Bud Black (CBB) has control of pitching decision.

-                   If 5 or more of my pitchers have a fatigue rating under 10% I may call up a starter from Triple A for one game, I have to send down a hitter and keep all pitchers active.

-                   I can make trades as I see fit, however I may not acquire a starting pitcher in any trade. And I can’t force any trades.

-                   The game forces me to stay under budget, unlike real baseball I can’t take Alfonso Soriano’s contract onto my team with a goofy prospect trade in July, unless I have the money to do so.

-                   I am writing these notes immediately following the end of a month. So there is no hindsight only looking forward and developing ideas to change our progress.

And now for the results. And this guy just because he looks cool. 

April saw my staff pitch to a 3.11 ERA; 5^th best in the Majors, and the 2^nd best K/9 in the league.  Despite one of the best pitching staffs in the league the lineup has been no better than a Triple A team of replacement players. Scoring 93 runs in 26 games with a team batting average of .227, the crap offense has been sparked by Jay Bruce, AJ Pierzynski and Edwin Encarnacion combining to hit .194 with 8 home runs. . Through April the “new-look” Padres are 14-12. Knowing that my pitchers are going to fatigue and be more susceptible to injury in August and September, I felt we needed to be better in April. The hitting will come around, my focus is on the pitching.

The Golden Sombrero; 4 k's in one game.
It's almost like a promotional night throughout April,
how many can this offense complete.

My real baseball theory isn’t working nearly as well as I had hoped. Computer Bud Black isn’t playing match-ups he’s just using guys until they are exhausted and then changing them. My theory was that the starter would pitch the first two innings and it’s matchups the rest of the way. So I have to many instances of 3 guys pitching 3 innings rather than 2 guys pitching 2 and 5 guys pitching 1. In the Season Opener Charlie Furbush pitched 2.1 perfect innings and then gave up 5 runs before recording another out. Jake McGee came in and gave up 6 more in 1 inning of work.

Despite my ineffectiveness as a GM the pitching staff did record 4 shutouts, which is pretty darn good. My ineffectiveness comes from my 13 man staff having 8 lefties and 5 righties. Which would likely explain why Jake McGee (8.59 ERA, 2.20 WHIP) Tim Collins (6.06 ERA, 1.90 WHIP) and Sean Doolittle (5.06 ERA, 1.75 WHIP) all had rough April’s. In fact the five worst April ERAs were all lefties. They were forced to pitch in situations they shouldn’t have been because they are perceived by the video game as LOOGYs (lefty one out guys). I have since traded Jake McGee and a prospect for Drew Storen and Tim Collins and a prospect for Bobby Parnell. We now sit at 6 lefties and 7 righties, which should make things much easier for Computer Bud Black.

I can't put WILTON Lopez into a game without thinking
he might have a MELTdown.

With 26 games you may be wondering who started what games. It was entirely random and I wouldn’t have been able to answer you in game. It was not until I looked at stats that I knew. My theory entering each game was that the guy in the closer role should not have a fatigue under 90. And the four most tired guys would be in the starting rotation as the “next four starters.” Typically I took the guy who was not tired with the hopes he could get me three innings (since CBB isn’t managing the way I had envisioned). However, I realized this would then leave him tired for three days and essentially make him unavailable untilt the next time he would arguably start. So I fixed that. But Nate Jones started 4 games and came out with an ERA of 1.45, he’s thrown 18.2 innings. Ryan Cook and Robbie Ross didn’t start any games, so we’ll make sure they have a few in May. Wilton Lopez pitched 16 innings of .56 ERA ball, leading to the awful pun in the caption above and Tony Watson picked up 2 saves. As a team we were 7 of 8 in save chances, and I don’t know if that was a 9^th inning blown save or a middle relief blown save (and in this strategy middle relief is the 4^th-8^th inning. 


We’ll see what May has in store for us.

Moneyball and Finding Market Inefficiencies

I asked myself the question last week after reading about relievers being the new money ball. Could a team win enough games to make the playoffs, let and possibly win a World Series and not spend anymoney on a Starting Pitcher; in theory, a 13 man bullpen that played match-ups on a game-to-game basis. The whole point of “moneyball” was/is to find market inefficiencies and do things nobody else was doing. The concept is surely something nobody else is doing.

The average wins needed to win a division, not the number that the team won but just one game better than the 2^nd place team in baseball over the past 5 seasons is 89.56. Is 90 wins doable without a starting pitcher. Baseball strategy would tell you absolutely not, however market inefficiencies might say otherwise.

Take the NL West for example, the average wins needed to win the division over the past 5 years is 88, and using current baseball strategy a team like the Padres is never going to get to 88 wins when LA has a payroll nearly 300% of theirs. 

The Padres $66 million payroll makes signing star players very tough. Anyone who signs a deal worth more than $10 million is making at least 15% of their total budget. Good luck finding an Ace for that kind of money, heck could luck finding a decent #3 starter for $10 million. So when they invested almost $14 million on Josh Johnson, they were essentially saying we are happy with an outfield of Alexei Amarista, Mark Kotsay, Kyle Blanks and maybe 50 games of Carlos Quentin. 

In a system of 13 relievers all playing the part of a “pitching staff, “ Josh Johnson doesn’t do you any good. In fact spending more than $3 million on any pitcher doesn’t do much good. The Padres have close to $36 million dollars locked up on 5 pitchers. If that $36 million were to be spread amongst 5 relievers at $2.5 million dollars each, they would have had $23.5 million to spend on Shin Soo Choo.

I know what you’re thinking where are they going to find 13 good relievers to make this work. Well, I took it into my own hands and set up a Franchise with the San Diego Padres on MLB2K13. My starting budget was 70.14 million dollars. I identified 13 relief pitchers that were NOT the current closer of their team (based on 2012 season, remember) and traded for all of them. For the record every trade was accepted there were no forced trades.

I entered the fictional 2013 season with a pitching staff of Charlie Furbush, Nate Jones, Aaron Crow, Tony Watson, Kelvin Herrera, Robbie Ross, Wilton Lopez, Tom Collins, Jake McGee, Ryan Cook, Sean Doolittle, Antonio Bastardo and Johnny Venters. My pitching staff cost me $6,264,000. Leaving me with $63,876,000 to assemble this lineup, and still have 8 million left.

CF: Norichikai Aoki

2B: Dustin Pedroia

LF: Alex Gordon

1B: Edwin Encarnacion

RF: Jay Bruce

SS: Ben Zobrist

C: AJ Pierzynski

3B: Brett Lawrie

BENCH: Omar Infante, Adam Eaton, Will Nieves, Cody Ransom

Each day for the next week I’ll release what happened during the month.

Tuesday – April

Wednesday – May

Thursday – June

Friday- July

Saturday – August

Sunday – September, October and a season wrap-up.

What Your Opening Day Attire Says About You

Pitchers and catchers report in 10 days, and I’m quite happy about that. We Cleveland fans know that our sports teams are going to struggle but the Browns are a joke and the Cavs aren’t even fun to watch. It means it’s time to move on to baseball season.

25 guys will break camp from the Indians and for he most part we can predict who 22 of them are going to be, harder though is to predict what players will still be Indians 3 years after you buy a jersey with their name on it.

So in a couple months when you head to Progressive Field for the Home Opener as people all shapes and sizes enter the stadium in their one size fits all replica promotion jersey, you will undoubtedly see the following.

Girl in a Nick Swisher jersey – She never watched a baseball game until 2013 when all of a sudden she became an Indians fan, her boyfriend bought it for her or else it would be pink.

Get this excrescence out of my ballpark.

Guy in THE Ben Francisco jersey – I know what you’re thinking this guy can’t exist? But he exist And it is THE Ben Francisco jersey not A Ben Francisco jersey , takin right off his back in the last of his 800 Indians ABs.

Rick Vaughn, Pedro Cerrano or Roger Dorn jersey – You are hilarious and quite honestly none of those guys are ever changing teams, so at least you won’t be the Ben Francisco guy.… until the 4^th movie comes out and Wild Thing signs a minor league deal with the Rays and is traded to Indians mid-season for Matt LaPorta. By the way if your jersey says “Wild Thing” on the back you’re not even trying. A. Subtlety goes a long way, by wearing that jersey you are saying; look at me I don’t get it. B. That never happened in the movies.

Anybody in a LaPorta jersey – Its hard to tell if this person is trying to be ironic or just doesn’t pay attention.  Until that trade to the Rays, then he’s going to go off.

Bob Feller, Larry Doby – Ahh yes the baseball historians, those who hold on to tradition and honor the best of the best, rather than ironically wearing a Jake Taylor uni.

Jason Kipnis, Michael Brantley, Justin Masterson and Carlos Santana – These guys say I’m an Indians fan and I’m a fan through the good and the bad, but I’m also smart enough and fiscally responsible enough not to buy a Ben Broussard jersey. He realizes that these four guys are the core talent of the team and desperately hope they stay in Cleveland.

Corey Kluber, Yan Gomes, Zach McAllister – Sabremetricians know better than to buy jerseys, players are just assets not humans. You can’t become attached.

People in Under-Armour and t-shirts – Wear a coat you dumbass, I know you want people to see what team you’re cheering for but you can do that with a hat.

The goatee era

Kenny Lofton, Jim Thome, Omar Vizquel, and Sandy Alomar – We got that jersey for Christmas or Chanukah when we were 9 and have worn it for every game since, be it at the ballpark or just to watch at the bar. Stay true to yourself millennials our time will come.

Oh yeah and for the record that Group of 8 cougars in the bleachers with Grady Sizemore jerseys and v-neck shirts is a Bachelorette party that was supposed to happen 5 years ago but she got pregnant and he kept drinking. But now she's celebrating independence with all 7 of her friends.

Riddle: What fits behind a coffee mug and hasn't been used since 2008?