Tuesday, February 12, 2013

Welcome to Cleveland, Please Don't Decline Immediately

The Indians' newest signing, Michel Bourn, steals a base
 
The Indians have made another splash this offseason. They signed a guy a lot of Fantasy Baseball players have heard of and never watched play. It has long been said that you can't teach speed. And if speed is your one tool, you better make use of it early because you won't have it for long.

Out of 1,465 MLB outfielders since 1977, only 21 have averaged 3.86 PAs per game as well as 1 steal every 16 PAs (which equates to 40 steals in a 625 PA season).

Of those 21, three have less than 2 full seasons of experience. The infamous Quinn Mack who played 5 games for the Mariners in 1994 and stole 2 bases. And two guys you've probably heard of Mike Trout and Starling Marte. Trout and Marte may be great base stealers but with less than 250 games between the two, making a judgement now would be unfair to the others.

Out of 1,465 MLB outfielders we have left ourselves with 19 who have shown consistency over numerous years to be considered elite base stealers. Veterans such as Kenny Lofton, Vince Coleman and some guy named Rickey Henderson make the list, along with a few current players like Jacoby Ellsbury and Carl Crawford. 

***Apologies to Joe Morgan, who never played outfield and Lou Brock whose career was pretty much over by the time 1977 came around.

Most importantly one of the names on this list is Michael Bourn, the newest Cleveland Indian. 3.86 wasn't just an arbitrary number, it is the number of plate appearance per game that the recently turned 30 year old has averaged for his career.

The Indians just paid Michael Bourn, 48 million over the next 4 years, working out to about 12 million a season. Many have declared it a great move, but I'm not so eager to jump on the bandwagon. He also just turned 30.

Why look at these 19 base-burglars? Is there a correlation to a decline in stolen bases after the turning 29 a second time?  Now that we've put that out there, thanks for playing Jacoby Ellsbury and Ben Revere (Marte and trout would have been out here anyway), you're not old enough we'll see you in a couple years. Now we've got it down to 17.

Taveras stole 68 bases for the Rockie
Of course there are some guys who are older than 30 now, but aren't still playing. Like Alex Sanchez who stole 56 bases as a 26 year old, 19 and 8 in his next two seasons and never played again. Or Willy Taveras who led the NL in steals in 2008 with 68, as a 26 year old. He stole 26 over the next two years and hasn't played since. Chuck Carr was out of the league before he turned 30, after stealing 58 bases as a 25 year old. Alan Wiggins stole 133 bases from 84-85, and stole no more than 30 over the next three years; he was out of the league at 29. There are four players with 703 steals between them (a steal every 12.5 PA's) who never saw a day in the league past 30.

Michael Bourn's birthday cake from 2008.
In case you didn't catch on, now 30 years old Michael Bourn, will hit at the top of the Indians line-up. 30 isn't old in baseball, 30 really isn't that old in any sport except gymnastics. But when your career is based on being really fast, 30 IS old. The good news is he's still in the league at 30... the bad news is he hasn't yet played a game as a 30 year old, so there's still time. It does put him in the company of 13 other very good (not all great) base stealers.

Those 13 left are, Willie Wilson, Scott Podsednik, Omar Moreno, Time Raines, Juan Pierre, Chone Figgins, Carl Crawford, Kenny Lofton, Rickey Henderson, Vince Coleman, and Ron LeFlore.

Starting with the 4 guys from this generation, Kenny Lofton did play in the 2000s but I consider him to be earlier, so we'll get to him later.

Figgins makes a play. NOT
Figgins stole 4 bases last season as a 34 year old; he stole 11 the season before as a 33 year old. He did steal 34, 42 and 42 in his 30-32 seasons, but at the cost of 40 points of batting average from 29-34. He's also widely considered one of the worst free agent signings of the past 10 years.

Podsednik stole 70 bases as a 28 year old. He stole 59 as a 29 year old. He even stole 40 as a 30 year old. Then he got hurt as a 31 year old and again as a 32 year old. Came back as a 33 year old and stole 30 bags. at a clip of about 5 extra PAs per steal. When you're talking 3.68 PAs per game that’s an extra game per steal.

Pierre specifically keeps getting contracts because he steals bases he stole 68 in 2010 as a 32 year old. But in 5 seasons since turning 30 has seen less than 400 at bats in 3 of them. BTW, those of you who think Pierre is a phenomenal base stealer he gets thrown out 25% of the time for his career. And since turning 30 that number leaps to 32%


And Carl Crawford, you know that guy that the Red Sox gave $142 million dollars over 7 years to as a 29 year old and for some reason the Dodgers bailed them out? He played 30 games last year. We'll see about him, but I don't think he's ever stealing 50 bases again.

The list continues on with the leaders in stolen bases from '77 on. Stats before 1977 do not qualify.

LeFlore was the rare athlete, whose speed got better as he aged.
Ron LeFlore began his career in '74 he stole 23, 28 and 58 bases. He's the only player in the group to average more stolen bases AFTER turning 30 then he did before turning 30. In fact LeFlore was a significantly better base stealer after turning 30.

Omar Moreno also began his career before the beginning of this data chart but was not a full-time player until '77 spending most of his career with the Pirates. Stealing 400+ bases between the ages of 24-29 one per every 9.67 plate appearance. From 30 on he'd only play four more seasons and steal 75 bases, taking twice as many plate appearances per steal.

There will never be an Indians outfielder even close to Lofton defensively.
Kenny Lofton played until he was 40, so to take an entire average of his steals after turning 30 wouldn't be quite right. He still stole 23 bases as a 40 year old, but Michael Bourn isn't going to be here at 40. Lofton became a full time player at 25, and averaged 65 steals a season until he turned 30. From 30-34 he still was an every-day center fielder, but he stole only 30 bases a year. In fact after stealing 75 as a 29 year-old, he only stole more than 35 one more time in his career.

Willie Wilson was 20 when he got his debut, but didn't see significant at bats until he turned 23. In 15 years with the Royals, Wilson stole 612 bases. But like Lofton, Wilson averaged 55 a year between 23-29, but from 30-33 he averaged just 38, and didn't see full-time at bats the rest of his career.

Coleman stole 100 bases or more for three straight seasons. He was stealing a base every 6 times he stepped to the plate. Then he turned 26 an ONLY stole 81. He turned 28 and ONLY stole 77. And though he was still stealing a base one out of every 10-plate appearance, he never saw 500 at bats after turning 28.
Raines's in his first full time season at 21 stole 71 bases. For those 9 years until he turned 30 he averaged 64 steals a season. Like Lofton, Baines played until he was in his 40s when he had no business stealing any bases. He could still hit .280 which made him a valuable DH or 4th OF. His steal decline could be attributed to injury when he was 28, but from 30-34 Raines only stole an average of 36 bases a year.


Comparing anyone to Rickey Henderson is really a waste of time because nobody will ever do what he did on the base paths. But even Henderson saw a decline after he turned 30. Yes, he still stole 50+ bases 4 times after turning 30. But when you are accustomed to a guy stealing 80 in a bad year, all of a sudden 58 doesn't looks that special. From his age 21-29 seasons, Henderson averaged 85 steals a year (1 steal per 7.23 PAs) From his 30-34 years he averaged only 60 (1 steal per 9.8 PAs). Even when his career had past him by he was still stealing a base ever 14 at bats, but it was only 30 a season. 

Even the greatest base stealer of all time, Rickey Henderson, saw a decrease in steals and speed as he got older.



Is 30 the true age of decline? Probably not, it seems more likely to be 32 or 33, however, the Indians signed on for 4 years of Bourn. And he'll be here making $12 million dollars at the true age of decline either way.